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Market Update 5/13/2019: The Dow Jones Futures indicated a 500 point drop pre-market and sure enough, we’ve opened today down 500 points. Will the Plunge Protection Team be able to work its magic today, or will the law of diminishing returns soon come into play? Only time will tell.

China Promises Tariffs of Their Own

 
China has built itself up over the past 40 years by accepting US dollars in exchange for very cheap goods, flooding world markets with products and providing a low overhead for manufacturing costs. This has caused a lot of Western and US manufacturing to simply move to China to increase profit margins, and after some time, China now has leverage over the rest of the world.

China is now using this leverage to threaten back with retaliatory tariffs of their own in response to the Trump administration’s initiation of tariffs on several hundred billion dollars worth of goods. At this point the dollar amount is relatively low, but a spat of tariffs can quickly turn into a trade war, and trade wars often turn into shooting wars.

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China May Start Unloading US Treasuries

 
Perhaps the open secret of the world economic and monetary system is that the US has been spending from a deficit for the last 50 years, and issuing US Treasuries as the world reserve currency to get others to join in on the debt-based spending spree. China has bought up these US Treasuries which have consistently been a form of safe haven monetary instrument for individuals and nations to diversify their currency holdings and also a way of “buying stock” in the world’s greatest economy and political system.

With the US as the largest world military and biggest economy post-WW2 it made little sense for any country to try to go against dollar hegemony. In fact, we see what happens to countries who are not on the the global Western banking system or trading in US dollars- Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Venezuela- sure, none of those places are prime vacation spots, but it’s no shock to learn they either tried to get off the US dollar system or still are not on it to this day.

But times are a little different nowadays, the US has already attempted to play empire in the middle east and it has not succeeded in doing much more than spending trillions and costing human lives. If China starts selling US Treasuries and refusing to buy more, it could quickly impact Uncle Sam’s credit limit, and that could be the beginning of the end for the US dollar as we now know it.

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Trump’s tweets and China trade talks seem to be the order of the day and the main perceived market mover, but it’s never that simple. The US economy is at the end of its latest business expansion cycle spanning almost 10 years, and an inevitable recession is due sooner or later.

Should I Buy Bonds?

 
Many investors, potential retirees, pension holders, and people with 401ks and IRAs will find themselves pondering if they should sell stocks and buy bonds at the onset of a financial crisis. Today we’re going to cover the pros and cons of shifting your funds into bonds.

Bonds are pretty safe, first of all. But sometimes, like now, they may not even keep pace with inflation. So an investor may have to decide whether they want to lock in a slight loss over 10 years or keep their money in riskier financial instruments and assets like stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs.

Not all bonds are created equal. Government bonds are pretty low yield and usually sit around 1 – 3%, and their yield and price all vary according to the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. If Trump gets his wish and the Fed lowers interest rates even further, then you can believe that you’ll earn even less with bonds over the long-term, and it may be harder to sell them should you desire to down the road.

Corporate bonds, on the other hand, have higher yields, but are a lot riskier these days. Experts are advising against stocking up on this type of bond as corporations have the highest levels of debt in history. This makes a default or a bankruptcy on their obligations a serious consequence you will want to plan for ahead of time.

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How Do Bonds Hold Up Over Time vs. Precious Metals

 
Ultimately, you can just sideline your cash if the stock market doesn’t appear to be on an upswing. Bull markets don’t last forever, and neither will the current one. If anything, a triple-top appears to be coming in on the Dow Jones, which is often a sign that the market will reverse course and enter a new trend.

But don’t think that you only have to have bonds or stocks, or just cash for that matter. Inflation is not likely to ever go down or be accurately reported (the official inflation does not match the avg price of a car year over year along with other indicators like rent and food), and if you lock your money into bonds, you can expect to have less purchasing power once your bond sells and you collect your money back, even with interest.

This is why gold and silver, historically undervalued at the present moment, hold such promise for all investors and retirees. Precious metals tend to do very well during economic downturns and are a good hedge against a quickly inflating currency, loss of reserve currency status for the US dollar, as well as a store of value and safe haven while the market is falling.

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There Are No Markets Any More, Only Interventions

 
When the Federal Reserve admits to rigging the market by buying and selling securities in “open market operations”, you’d think that would be a news story somewhere. Unfortunately, it’s only the independent news media, a few websites, and people who dare to read the government’s proxies’ own publications who know about this truth.

It actually makes more sense than the financial news headlines, which blame market moves in any given direction on contradictory and mindless dribble.

An actual declassified telegram to the US State Dept reveals how the US wants to remain the “masters of gold” and perform “reshuffling” among other nations to keep the appearance of having large gold reserves, in order to maintain dollar supremacy and the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

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Does The Suppression of the Price of Gold Work Forever?

 
Considering that while a lot of this scheming was being brewed up by the US government and Federal Reserve the price of an ounce of gold was around 40 bucks, and now gold is around $1300/oz., it’s clear that the manipulation only works in the short-term.

Countries like China, Russia, and India are all aware of how the US and Western governments use derivatives to keep the price of gold from naturally rising. This could also be why they’re stocking up on gold now while it’s undervalued and gradually refusing to purchase US debt in the form of Treasuries, because one day, the US dollar will go the way of all other previous world reserve currencies throughout history.

I just wouldn’t want to be without gold and silver when it happens.

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With Dow Futures down almost 500 points before the market even opened, mainstream media were accusing Donald Trump of wrecking the economy from a few Tweets complaining that China was playing games and refusing to take trade talks seriously. The Dow seems to have shrugged it all off for the time being, leading us once again to ask, is this economy even real?

Dow $80,000? You Never Know

The market is closed for the day and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has eliminated most of its pre-open damage, closing down just a measly 60 points. All the worrying about the China trade deal looks like it was all for nought.

This is just another indicator that there are no real fundamentals driving the current stock market. Good news. Bad news. None of it matters any more, it would appear. While all the other economic data continues to indicate we are already in a recession, aside from the manipulated unemployment figures and bubble-inflated stock markets, everything goes on as normal, for now.

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The Real Economy is Telling a Different Story, as Usual

Truck sales down over 50% year over year show that the economy is slowing down tremendously, as these trucks are used to move goods across the country for consumers as well as business-to-business tasks. Ray Dalio, billionaire hedge fund founder, along with his billionaire buddies, are all predicting massive social unrest as the gap between the haves and the have-nots widens even more.

Retail closures continue to surpass the entire number of last year’s closure, and we are only 4 months into the new year. Throw in the fact that residential home building has sunk every month this year due to a lack of buyers, and it will not surprise you that Americans have stopped buying just about anything that they don’t need to eat or put in their gas tanks.

More Americans Working Past Retirement

The median 401k is only about $60,000, which is way less than you’d need to retire comfortably, if at all. Only 31% of Americans have access to a pension fund, and most Americans don’t have $500 saved for an emergency expense.

These are the real numbers behind the US economy. It’s becoming clear that people need to prepare now for the next official recession, since the unofficial one is already here.

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Gerald Celente from Trends in the News talks about Larry Kudlow

Larry Kudlow Can’t Speak Highly Enough About This Economy

 
In spite of the real facts about the nation’s economy, Larry Kudlow can’t stop selling the American public a lie.

The economy’s so strong that: America can’t have normal interest rates, in fact, it needs them lower, and it needs more fiscal stimulus i.e. money printing to keep the economy soaring. Unemployment’s at all-time lows, the GDP is smashing records, and the stock market is no way over-inflated. Not one bit.

To be fair, Larry Kudlow wouldn’t have the job if Donald Trump had chosen to forgo the ever-elusive “draining of the swamp”, instead packing his cabinet with Goldman Sachs darlings and Wall St. favorites. At this point, while most of us with an IQ higher than 80 realize the entire “Russian Collusion” story was a giant lie meant to distract and weaken Trump’s resolve to execute his “America First” agenda, it’s probably not a stretch to wonder if “The Donald” was nonetheless compromised during the mass surveillance on him during his candidacy, and likely before that.

For many who don’t understand how US politics really work, you have to wrap your head around a concept known as blackmail and leverage.

Why Do ALL US Presidents End Up as the Same Guy?

 
Obama, the Nobel Peace Prize winner, once bragged that he was “good at killing people” and did more drone strikes than his predecessor, the war-mongering George W. Bush. And yet, peacenik Obama had no problem overthrowing one of the wealthiest and truly progressive African nations when the CIA/Deep State pulled off a coup of Libya using none other than Al Qaeda and ISIS, with Hillary Clinton bragging about the murder of Ghadafi in her timeless soundbyte of “We came, we saw, he died.”

For anyone who thinks it’s the US’s place to choose who lives or dies in this world, please do this military veteran a favor and exit the website immediately. Not only is America not the “exceptional nation” that the country’s hidden controllers flatter us as when they need a war that destabilizes an entire region and advances the interests of a small middle eastern country that itself was illegally created and born in a terror campaign against British troops after World War 2, we are just one nation of many, and if we don’t humble ourselves before God soon, we stand to lose it all.

That is, if you’re like me, and you don’t believe that fake money printing and living off the labor of the rest of the world will last forever.

The truth is, the US Congress is a group of controlled whackos as well. Not a single one of them will point out the elephant in the room, the fact that dual citizens of America and another country aforementioned which shall go unnamed are even allowed to “serve”, if you can even call it that. No, because if they did that, they’d be hit with such wild claims as inciting violence and trying to turn the world back into one giant persecutory ghetto.

And as long as they’re able to silence Congress, and now the President, the American people will never be truly free. I honestly had higher hopes for Trump, which were quickly shattered when he launched a slew of missiles into Syria, a country which has never attacked the United States of America. Actually, one of the press conferences immediately after Trump’s election displayed President Trump showing highly unusual body language and non-verbal behavior of someone who was being told to read something on script, very unusual from the free-speaking shoot-from-the-hip candidate on the campaign trail and at the debates.

Indeed, it Looks Like Trump is Just Another Puppet of the Global Elite Cabal

 
When you consider that Trump has done more for Israel than he may ever do for America in 2 terms as President, while flip-flopping on his original claims that 1) vaccines are not as safe as they say 2) the unemployment numbers are rigged 3) the stock market is in a giant bubble 4) America First i.e. build a damn wall already, you start to see that Trump really is not much different than the Presidents that came before him.

Sure, he’s completely different from the guy you voted for, and I would have voted for him too if the communist state of California had not denied me my right to vote by absentee while I was traveling the country on business in 2016.

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But sometimes, it’s best just to see things for what they are, rather than what you’d wish they would be. Sure, I’d rather have Trump than any Democrat race-baiting America-hating scumbag, but considering how Trump can build 2 walls for Israel, sign off on a 4.7 trillion dollar annual budget but can’t find 7 billion for a wall for our porous southern border (or simply put troops of the world’s greatest military on the border to defend), then soon after enough fibs and the outsourcing of all the fibs to proxies like Larry Kudlow, it becomes necessary if nothing else for your own sanity, to call a duck a duck.

Because either I’m going crazy, or it’s not all what it’s quacked up to be.

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Unicorns IPOs are Being Sold to the Public as the Next Big Thing, but Will It End Well?

 

Not since the infamous Dot.com bust and market crash of 1999 – 2000 have we seen this level of over-hyped, over-valued Silicon Valley darlings being presented to the public as the very investment God would make were He a stock broker at a trading desk on Wall St.

And just as before, this will not end well.

A Unicorn IPO is an company that is worth (supposedly) $1 Billion before it ever goes public as a traded company on the stock exchange.

Recently, the likes of Pinterest and Lyft went to market and became publicly available, immediately starting out with high prices to the secondary market (the people who buy from exchanges once the IPO hits the market), then both losing all their steam on the 2nd day and suffering major drops in value.

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Why the Sudden Unicorn Party

 
Indeed, it should raise a red flag of warning to people who are starting to see investment banks’ extreme willingness to speed up filing procedures to get all these companies to market ASAP.

Considering that most Unicorns lose money for investors after 5 years, they remain one of the worst options you can speculate on. So who wins?

The companies, their executives, and their employees who have stock options and compensation packages based in stock shares, can expect to see a sudden rise in the value of their holdings the moment their company goes public and hits the market. This is because their private stock is usually issued at a purposeful undervalued price.

The investment banks, who buy into the companies and take a share of equity pre-IPO can also expect to see a sudden pop, which is why they love it too. And it also makes you wonder if they know something about the next few years if they are hurrying to throw anything up there on the market in the hopes retail investors will ignorantly pour in, because the party might be over sooner than later.

What this really reminds me of, on a much larger and slower scale, is how the cryptocurrency market was behaving in 2017 – 2018. Any new coin/token brought to an exhcange got bought up with extreme willingness, and most of them, if not all of them, are worthless and their prices all crashed once people woke up and the big money left the game.

The Global Slowdown Looms Amidst a Backdrop of Wall St Excess

 
Many experts have not seen this level of complacency since before the Great Recession and housing/stock market crashes of 2007. Can you really blame them, though? The markets are as artificial as margarine, with near-zero % interest rates bringing in waves of “free” or cheap money for the big investing houses to prop up markets and draw in more customers to their fund management operations.

The Federal Reserve has reversed its course, stopping the “tightening” it was doing to decrease the size of its balance sheet after almost 10 years of money printing and clever schemes like “operation twist”. Added to Trump’s corporate tax cuts (which mostly went to corporate stock share buybacks by the corporations of their own stock to further inflate the price), and you’ve got the perfect storm brewing once the monetary and fiscal “stimulus” heroin wears off.

Ride sharing company Uber will go public soon, and will one of the few companies valued at over $50 billion that does not even make a profit, and actually has posted a net loss in the previous year, just like Lyft.

The Warning Signs are All There: the Warnings Aren’t

 
UBS has told investors to buy and hold long-term if they want to make money off of these unicorn IPOs, even though that contradicts their reports which state most of them aren’t profitable after 5 years.

It seems the level of fraud and complicity is not even a worry for the perpetrators of the articial markets and inflated US dollar at this point.

They’ve decided to go for broke on the backs of naive investors and retirees just trying to beat official inflation and have a little money to live off of when they retire, if they even get to.

Will sanity ever return to our economy and our markets?

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The Coming Great American Retirement Crisis

The Great American Retirement Crisis: How We Got Here

 
The American Dream used to be: you work hard, you save your money, you live within your means, you have a few kids and raise them to respect others regardless of difference in opinion, you teach them to value and uphold the US Constitution, and when you hit your 60’s, you hang it all up and relax the rest of your days away.

Now, that concept is no longer a viable possibility for most Americans retiring in 2019. The reasons are many, so let’s cover a few key facts right now to see how to better understand what’s unfolding, and how to deal with it.

Retirement Costs Money

 
And lots of it, too. The simple facts are most Americans end up drawing around $1,400/month from Social Security, and the average 401k has about $95,000. Over half of American retirees have investments and money heavily invested in the stock market.

If retirement lasts 20 years, then that means $95,000 divided by 20 years, which leaves about $5,000/year on top of social security.

That means many Americans will be expected to live on $2k – 3k a month, hardly enough to spend lots of leisure time hitting the golf course or traveling and dining out at nice restaurants.

Throw in the cost of medical care which continues to grow into older age, and you’ve got a lot of people who can expect to live near the poverty line in their golden years.

Americans Save Less Money Now Than Ever

 
In what appears to be a fiscal epidemic, more Americans don’t have savings any more. About 50% of Americans don’t even have $500 saved for a rainy day.

Among retirees, 42% of Americans have less than $10,000 saved, meaning they will count exclusively on their Social Security check for survival.

Even selling a house and liquidating all that equity won’t mean a comfortable retirement for most, and now the news is reporting that many senior Americans won’t be able to afford housing or senior assisted living.

Indeed, not only is the American Dream fading away before our very eyes, it seems many people will actually live in poverty.

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Social Security Will Pay Much Less Soon, and Run Out of Cash Reserves in its Trust Fund

 
By 2034, The Social Security will no longer be able to pay out its max benefit, as its reserves will have run out and it will only be able to pay that which it immediately takes in, which is about 77% for social security and 96% for disability.

So for younger Americans who are having trouble even entering the workforce due to most new jobs being taken by people 55 or older, when they eventually draw Social Security benefits, they will likely be less than 77%.

FDR’s Grand New Deal Was Nothing More than a Ponzi Scheme All Along

 
It is becoming increasingly clear that the idea that big daddy government will take care of you from cradle to grave has finally been disproven. while Social Security was never intended to be used as the sole source of retirement income, it’s now showing how unreliable it will be for future generations of Americans even to supplement their retirement, if they can even afford to call it one.

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Remember When Americans Used to Save Money? Me Neither

 
A savings account used to be the holy grail of personal financial responsibility, but these days, Americans are in no position to save even a dime.

Some Disturbing Facts About Americans and Their Financial Outlook

 
*Low interest rates have kept Americans from saving $500 billion to $2 Trillion over the past 10 years
*40% of Americans can’t cough up $400
*Over half of all new jobs in the workforce are taken by people over the age of 55
*More Americans say they are having to put off retirement to support their kids
*Low interest rates and Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve have resulted in a massive stock market bubble

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Gold Remains Undervalued Amidst a Sea of Toxic Financial Instruments

 
Gold remains traded at a level of around $1290/ounce, but if the market takes a sudden dive in a new recession, it won’t surprise anyone to see gold double or even triple in price the same way it did between the late 90’s and 2013.

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Recession Now a 75% Certainty

 
Some other points mentioned in the video include:

*84% of CFOs surveyed predict a recession by 2021

The survey surprised the surveyors when so many CFOs were in near total agreement that a recession would be here by 2021, if not sooner. A global slowdown is in effect, however the American and Western mainstream media will not touch this topic. It’s always about Trump and either what he’s doing or not doing. In other words, just more fake news.

*Fewer young Americans getting drivers licenses

While getting a driver’s license used to be as American as applie pie, Generation Z’ers are now enrolling in driver’s education courses at later ages, and fewer are going to the DMV to get that all-coveted freedom pass. With Uber, Lyft, and limited resources to include insourcing menial wage jobs to foreigners and immigrant workers (some illegal), the average American 16 year old is now competing heavily with men twice their age who are willing to practically kill themselves to do the same job.

*Labor market supply oversaturation keeping wages flat

Again, globalism reveals its ugly head, with many Americans entering the workforce later for jobs that pay less and offer fewer hours, while women joining the workforce and letting in massive amounts of immigrants more than doubled the labor market, thus driving down prices of labor since the 1970’s.

*Real inflation and CPI around 7 – 10%

The government has consistently changed the way it keeps tabs on metrics such as inflation and the CPI (consumer price index), even going so far to ignore the cost of basic goods because at the end of the day, the Federal Reserve is not there to do anything but protect the global banking elite and keep Wall St looking good.

*Millennials can’t afford to buy homes, have too much debt

With a lack of good jobs, millennials are graduating college with record student loan debt that many will never be able to pay back working a “normal” job. When I waited tables, I encountered a bartender who told me she had over $100K in student debt. I nearly collapsed when I heard that and she said it as casually as you might ask for an extra napkin when having lunch.

*10,000 baby boomers retire every day and need to be wary of market downturns

With 10,000 people becoming 64 every day over the next couple of years, a baby boomer will benefit from being mentally and psychologically prepared to protect their investments, 401k and IRA while they still can. Ensuring that once you leave the workforce your investments are more heavily divided into lower risk assets while being ready to sideline your stock holdings into cash are one way to prepare. We offer a free gold IRA investing kit to help people with this as well.

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How long do stock market crashes last? How long does it take to recover your losses once a major market downturn occurs? What % of your 401k/IRA should be in stocks/bonds/cash?

With so many Americans leaving the workforce to retire on a daily basis, and over half of them heavily invested into the current stock markets through their current 401k or IRA, it is becoming increasingly important for new retirees to develop a plan to survive an incoming recession.

The next recession is already underway in this blogger’s opinion, going off of economic fundamentals such as slowing retail sales, the Federal Reserves’s decision to stop raising interest rates even a little bit, housing prices dropping and new home starts decreasing, as well as other indicators such as record corporate debt, record personal debt, record student loan debt, and record auto loan defaults.

Fortunately there is still time, but how much time, is anyone’s guess. So for now, retirees should be mentally prepared to adjust their portfolios at the onset of the next recession, since they are not likely to be able to continue working to wait out the market for a recovery, as many unfortunately had to do in 2008. Since it takes an average of 6 or 7 years for stock prices to recover (if the stocks’ underlying company did not go bust during the crash), most people simply cannot afford to hang out in the workforce until they’re 70 years old.

So here’s some things you can do either right now or when you’re reasonably sure the recession has begun in the stock market. Remember, the stock market is not always a good indicator of the real economy, and may be the last domino to fall.

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How to Protect Your 401k or IRA from an Impending Stock Market Crash

 

*A general rule is to have your age in bonds

If you are 60 years old, then around 60% of your holdings should be in safer financial instruments such as bonds and treasuries. The rest could be in stocks, though even that gets riskier as the recession approaches.

*Be ready to convert your stocks into cash and sit on the sideline for the time being

While it’s impossible to time the market, as the clock ticks on, it becomes clear that no business expansion cycle lasts forever. The current expansion cycle, largely boosted by central bank manipulation like quantitative easing as well as corporate stock buybacks and tax cuts for the wealthy, is about to break the record for the longest boom period in market history.

A retiree/potential retiree could start selling off their stocks gradually now and getting into cash in a money market fund or money market bank account. Remember, there is a difference between the two, as the former is not FDIC insured, but is still considered relatively safe

*Take advantage of the only remaining bargains on the market

Gold and silver remain historically undervalued and have found price stability for the last 5 years. While precious metals don’t always go up in price/value tremendously when the economy appears to be doing well, once the recession hits and investors flee to the exits, you can expect metals to go up once again as the Federal Reserve bakes more inflation into the US dollar.

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